But Mousie, thou art no thy lane,
In proving foresight may be vain:
The best laid schemes o' mice an' men
Gang aft agley,
An' lea'e us nought but grief an' pain,
For promis'd joy!
Robert Burns, To a Mouse, 1785
Sometimes you can't win for losing. No matter how much you prepare and get ready, there will always be circumstances out of your control. There is currently no access to Glacier Point, or the trailhead for the Panorama Trail, which is still under snow. Subdome is still covered in snow - not even the rangers can pass to put the Half Dome cables up. The cables will not be up over Memorial Day weekend and that's the weekend before we are supposed to hike into Little Yosemite Valley.
2010 has seen record levels of snow in the Sierra Nevada, currently at or above 150% of normal. I have come to the conclusion that even if the cables are up and the snow on subdome melts and the road to Glacier Point is open, it's going to be downright cold.
Do I really want to go backpacking, camping and hiking in the snow and freezing cold?
Update 8:34 pm: Snow is now forecast for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday of this next week:
A STORM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
SNOW MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING IN YOSEMITE PARK... AND SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE SIERRA WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL INITIALLY BE NEAR 8000 FEET... BUT LOWER TO 6000 TO 7000 FEET LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT AND ABOVE 7000 FEET... AND COULD RANGE FROM A HALF FOOT IN SEQUOIA AND KINGS CANYON PARKS... TO OVER ONE FOOT FARTHER NORTH IN YOSEMITE PARK. BELOW THE SNOW LEVEL... PERIODS OF COLD RAIN ARE LIKELY.
This means that it is likely that Little Yosemite Valley will see at least some snowfall, as it is at 6100 feet elevation. Glacier Point, however, is at an elevation of 7214 feet, which means there will likely be significant snowfall there. This will delay the opening of the Glacier Point Road and access to the Panorama trailhead, from which we have been planning to start our hike.
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